Wednesday 7/31/24
There's an implied heading to this entry of "I'd prefer to be wrong" but we're here on the last day of July and I'm ready to say that I don't think the 2024 Red Sox are going anywhere, by which I mean, they're not making the playoffs. I'm expecting them to finish behind Seattle and Tampa Bay, too.
What are these Sox? They're six games above .500 now and two out for the final Wild Card spot. They are struggling and it's not just over three or four games. They were drilled again last night. They give up a lot of runs. They had three more errors last night, they had four the other day, they're falling for the hidden ball trick, an outfielder is failing to make a play he should make that blows them a game.
The Red Sox get cranked. They surrender a big bunch of runs every day it seems like. For them to win, it's as if they need to put up a big number of runs themselves, because the opponent will be getting their licks in.
Tanner Houck has reverted back to what he formerly was. This Cy Young candidate thing he had going for a little bit there is done, and he's looking more like a number three in the rotation than an ace. That could be what he is. It might be the optimistic take on what he is. Guys in baseball find their proper level. They may surge for a month, but at the end of six months, you see the guy for who the guy is.
Devers is having a nice year, and Durran is having a nice year, but this team doesn't have enough, it seems, to be consistent. Durran, incidentally, does strike out at an average of once a game. He has more WAR than Ohtani does, though--or at least he did two days ago--and leads the league in both doubles and triples and should clear 300 total bases.
The trade deadline moves were underwhelming. Paxton, who I touched on recently, got the loss last night. They replaced one anemic-hitting catcher with another. As for their starting catcher: People were enthusing over Connor Wong, but you have to understand: Success for a guy like that, and so many guys, comes from not playing as much. Play more, you get revealed as what you are. Down comes the average, and it keeps going down. Being a starting MLB catcher who excels with the bat is something few guys can do (though, paradoxically, there are a bunch of guys doing it this year).
Modern analytics are in large part so annoying because they're wielded by idiots who know nothing about sports. For instance, this new back-up catcher: He can't hit. But analytics people will say that he pulls the ball this percentage of the time, and he does so this percentage of the time, the implication being that now that his home ballpark is Fenway, he'll be successful because of the Monster. Right. You still have to be able to hit. We're not talking popping up to shallow left. The wall isn't 200 feet away. Guys who can hit can hit wherever; guys who can't, can't. Okay, that latter guy might get two more home runs somewhere because of a short porch to his pull side, but really, does it matter if you hit 4 home runs instead of 2? I guess if they're crucial game-tying blasts in the bottom of the ninth in the thick of a pennant race, but come on. Stop trying to spin everything. Understand things instead.
The Sox added two mediocre bullpen arms, but I found myself asking, "Are they even mediocre?" I guess they are.
Kansas City feels like a better team to me that can make a bit of noise. The Sox don't have the pitching, they still play with their heads up their asses too often, and they just need too much to go right for them in order to win. This stretch out of the break arguably says more about who they are than the months that led up to it.
So, I just don't see this happening for this team. Nor do I have much cause, unfortunately, to be optimistic going forward. I think that all 2024 is going to be in the end was this forgettable season where, for a few weeks, the Sox contended for the third Wild Card spot, and no one is ever going to remember or care about that. You had all of these bad Red Sox teams in the past, and if you go back into the records, you'll see that in July of that given year they were sort of contending, and that's before there were Wild Card spots. But there isn't anyone who has a clue that this was so later on, save hardcore baseball historians who know such things about the seasons within the seasons of individual non-playoff/.500-type teams, and that's less than ten people, and it could be just me.
But as I said, I hope I'm wrong and the Sox kick off a winning streak and sustain a run of good ball starting today. They do have two months of the season left, which means one third. Lots of time left. But also time to fall and finish way out of it.
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